Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 27.171704 28.968860 30.897999 33.135926 35.677608 38.495361 41.885061
2025-12-14 23.660729 25.937996 28.511170 31.674113 35.515828 40.112790 46.164613
2025-12-21 22.243828 24.842203 27.882559 31.776465 36.748219 43.065442 52.037525
2025-12-28 21.291759 24.139085 27.567634 32.114175 38.179794 46.324771 58.783612
2026-01-04 20.058624 22.968105 26.539278 31.389107 38.062824 47.394410 62.509294
2026-01-11 19.571811 22.668416 26.554884 31.984297 39.743096 51.161210 71.121261
2026-01-18 19.031919 22.252141 26.369504 32.261659 40.964668 54.381781 79.624898
2026-01-25 18.240758 21.459359 25.625382 31.684222 40.838428 55.422394 84.399948
2026-02-01 17.516626 20.714916 24.897787 31.065830 40.570563 56.162900 88.754386
2026-02-08 16.605132 19.683128 23.727614 29.729358 39.062366 54.584809 87.834238
2026-02-15 16.446818 19.646483 23.916573 30.388149 40.767292 58.873388 101.258440
2026-02-22 16.198952 19.474041 23.901517 30.732158 41.982987 62.464472 114.653378
2026-03-01 15.633070 18.914779 23.409623 30.472416 42.435915 65.247546 129.416592
2026-03-08 14.800437 17.962450 22.320676 29.230054 41.096633 64.261397 132.983370
2026-03-15 14.427702 17.625714 22.093668 29.315705 42.104981 68.445026 157.444093
2026-03-22 14.144377 17.397077 22.005705 29.608826 43.525252 73.969660 195.184316
2026-03-29 13.644293 16.836834 21.391074 28.980007 43.101453 74.972954 214.343458
2026-04-05 13.471291 16.735757 21.458796 29.496254 44.990551 82.474936 290.267588
2026-04-12 13.243370 16.543097 21.372682 29.736472 46.353324 89.134341 396.089872
2026-04-19 12.859449 16.106653 20.886433 29.236112 46.079273 90.877828 467.804412
2026-04-26 12.490920 15.680386 20.397712 28.699189 45.665068 92.097915 549.883248
2026-05-03 12.000686 15.060557 19.583387 27.534948 43.757927 87.990046 514.523466
2026-05-10 11.921972 15.048269 19.726427 28.109500 45.811118 97.997795 981.819727